Gulf development more likely
- Author: Douglas Reid Oct 18, 2019,
Oct 18, 2019, 0:28
Moving off the eastern coast of Mexico, the low pressure system was likely to develop into a tropical or subtropical system before Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
This system will move northeast over the next few days, battling some areas of higher wind shear in the Gulf which may inhibit or slow down development efforts.
A storm has to have winds of at least 39 miles per hour and a defined center of circulation to get a name. That will mean the heaviest rain and strongest winds stay offshore.
Keep in mind that this is all subject to change and that Hurricane Hunters have not even investigated the system. The rain will certainly provide some much-needed drought relief.
Landfall is now forecasted to be somewhere along the Florida panhandle sometime Friday night or Saturday morning as a tropical storm.
Impacts in southeast Louisiana right now look to be mostly along the coast.
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The computer forecast models indicate that there is a small window of time that the system can organize with a kick from the jet stream dip.
A general 1-3 inches of rain is forecast from the northeastern Gulf coast to near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.
Hurricane season officially runs through November 30th.
A subtropical storm isn't a fully tropical system but has some of those features. It will likely become Tropical Storm Nestor over the next couple of days.
"In terms of the long-range outlook for the Atlantic Basin, there may be signifiant inhibiting factors for tropical development during the latter part of October into early November", Kottlowski said.